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2014 Governor · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 3,111 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 39%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.93% · Republican 45.07%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 39 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.932 − 45.068 = 9.864
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (9.864) = 3.136
  4. Absolute miss = |3.136| = 3.136

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34137, race ID 1250 (538 database).