2014 House · NY-4
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 42%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.79% · Republican 38.68%
D+9.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 47.786 − 38.682 = 9.104
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (9.104) = 0.895
- Absolute miss = |0.895| = 0.895
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34064, race ID 5594 (538 database).