2014 Governor · NY
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 748 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 33%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.16% · Republican 31.46%
D+14.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 33 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 46.157 − 31.464 = 14.693
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (14.693) = 6.306
- Absolute miss = |6.306| = 6.306
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34064, race ID 1237 (538 database).