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2014 Senate · ME

Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 66.6%

R+39.6

The certified result

Democrat 31.50% · Republican 68.46%

R+37.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 66.6 = -39.60
  2. Actual margin = 31.498 − 68.458 = -36.960
  3. Signed miss = -39.60 − (-36.960) = -2.640
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.640| = 2.640

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34008, race ID 9 (538 database).