Skip to content

2014 House · ME-2

Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 193 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38.9% · Republican 37.7%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 41.83% · Republican 47.03%

R+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.9 − 37.7 = 1.20
  2. Actual margin = 41.827 − 47.031 = -5.204
  3. Signed miss = 1.20 − (-5.204) = 6.404
  4. Absolute miss = |6.404| = 6.404

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34008, race ID 5514 (538 database).