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2014 Governor · NH

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 1,132 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.948) = -4.948
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.948| = 4.948

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33966, race ID 1234 (538 database).