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2014 Governor · AZ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 2,621 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.62% · Republican 53.44%

R+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.617 − 53.442 = -11.825
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-11.825) = 1.825
  4. Absolute miss = |1.825| = 1.825

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33942, race ID 1222 (538 database).