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2014 Senate · OR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 561 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 32%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.73% · Republican 36.87%

D+18.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 32 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.728 − 36.866 = 18.862
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (18.862) = 2.138
  4. Absolute miss = |2.138| = 2.138

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33841, race ID 20 (538 database).