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2014 Senate · ID

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 575 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 61%

R+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.67% · Republican 65.33%

R+30.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 61 = -31.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.672 − 65.328 = -30.656
  3. Signed miss = -31.00 − (-30.656) = -0.343
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.343| = 0.343

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33836, race ID 27 (538 database).