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2014 Governor · CO

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 755 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 41%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (3.342) = 1.658
  4. Absolute miss = |1.658| = 1.658

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33835, race ID 1247 (538 database).