2014 Governor · IA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 964 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 55%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%
R+21.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 55 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-21.721) = 3.721
- Absolute miss = |3.721| = 3.721
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33829, race ID 1226 (538 database).