Skip to content

2014 Senate · CO

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 431 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.945) = 0.944
  4. Absolute miss = |0.944| = 0.944

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33826, race ID 23 (538 database).