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2014 Governor · CO

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 431 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (3.342) = 3.658
  4. Absolute miss = |3.658| = 3.658

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33826, race ID 1247 (538 database).