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2014 Senate · MS

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 654 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 50%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.89% · Republican 59.90%

R+22.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 50 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.894 − 59.900 = -22.006
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-22.006) = 0.005
  4. Absolute miss = |0.005| = 0.005

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33822, race ID 18 (538 database).