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2014 Senate · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 39%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.15% · Republican 42.91%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 39 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.151 − 42.908 = 10.243
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (10.243) = -1.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.244| = 1.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33821, race ID 6 (538 database).