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2014 Governor · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 42%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 44.51%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.071 − 44.510 = 5.561
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.561) = -0.561
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.561| = 0.561

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33821, race ID 1238 (538 database).