2014 House · NH-1
New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 461 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 47%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.10% · Republican 51.71%
R+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.105 − 51.706 = -3.601
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.601) = 2.600
- Absolute miss = |2.600| = 2.600
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33820, race ID 5574 (538 database).