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2014 Senate · AK

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 561 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.83% · Republican 47.96%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.833 − 47.962 = -2.129
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.129) = -1.870
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.870| = 1.870

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33810, race ID 12 (538 database).