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2014 Senate · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,567 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.945) = 2.944
  4. Absolute miss = |2.944| = 2.944

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33809, race ID 23 (538 database).