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2014 Governor · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 3,987 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 57%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.90% · Republican 59.27%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 57 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.904 − 59.271 = -20.367
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-20.367) = 0.367
  4. Absolute miss = |0.367| = 0.367

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33806, race ID 1254 (538 database).