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2014 Governor · NH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,042 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 38%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 38 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (4.948) = 4.052
  4. Absolute miss = |4.052| = 4.052

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33803, race ID 1234 (538 database).