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2014 Governor · HI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 22%

D+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 37.08%

D+12.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 22 = 32.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.454 − 37.076 = 12.378
  3. Signed miss = 32.00 − (12.378) = 19.622
  4. Absolute miss = |19.622| = 19.622

The poll overstated the Democrat by 19.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33802, race ID 1227 (538 database).