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2014 Senate · IL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 3,519 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 39%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.55% · Republican 42.70%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 39 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.549 − 42.695 = 10.854
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (10.854) = 2.146
  4. Absolute miss = |2.146| = 2.146

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33800, race ID 4 (538 database).