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2014 Governor · IL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 3,519 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 41%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.35% · Republican 50.27%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.347 − 50.270 = -3.923
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-3.923) = 7.922
  4. Absolute miss = |7.922| = 7.922

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33800, race ID 1252 (538 database).