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2014 Governor · SC

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,566 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 50%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.42% · Republican 55.90%

R+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 50 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.416 − 55.897 = -14.481
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-14.481) = -2.519
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.519| = 2.519

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33798, race ID 1244 (538 database).