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2014 Senate · IA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 772 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.76% · Republican 52.10%

R+8.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.761 − 52.100 = -8.339
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-8.339) = 5.339
  4. Absolute miss = |5.339| = 5.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33794, race ID 26 (538 database).