2014 Governor · IA
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 772 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 59%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%
R+21.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 59 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-21.721) = -1.279
- Absolute miss = |-1.279| = 1.279
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33794, race ID 1226 (538 database).