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2014 Senate · GA

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 565 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-7.683) = 10.683
  4. Absolute miss = |10.683| = 10.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33793, race ID 17 (538 database).