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2014 Senate · RI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 866 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 65% · Republican 20%

D+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 70.58% · Republican 29.25%

D+41.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 65 − 20 = 45.00
  2. Actual margin = 70.583 − 29.247 = 41.336
  3. Signed miss = 45.00 − (41.336) = 3.665
  4. Absolute miss = |3.665| = 3.665

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33790, race ID 33 (538 database).