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2014 Governor · RI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 866 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 35%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.70% · Republican 36.24%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 35 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.703 − 36.237 = 4.466
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.466) = 0.534
  4. Absolute miss = |0.534| = 0.534

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33790, race ID 1239 (538 database).