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2014 Senate · WY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 258 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 67%

R+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 17.45% · Republican 72.19%

R+54.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 67 = -40.00
  2. Actual margin = 17.446 − 72.186 = -54.740
  3. Signed miss = -40.00 − (-54.740) = 14.740
  4. Absolute miss = |14.740| = 14.740

The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33789, race ID 13 (538 database).