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2014 Governor · WY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 258 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 58%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.25% · Republican 59.39%

R+32.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 58 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.253 − 59.389 = -32.136
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-32.136) = 7.135
  4. Absolute miss = |7.135| = 7.135

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33789, race ID 1231 (538 database).