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2014 Senate · CO

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38.6% · Republican 46%

R+7.4

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.6 − 46 = -7.40
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -7.40 − (-1.945) = -5.456
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.456| = 5.456

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33787, race ID 23 (538 database).