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2014 Senate · MN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 2,430 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.15% · Republican 42.91%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.151 − 42.908 = 10.243
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.243) = -0.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.244| = 0.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33785, race ID 6 (538 database).