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2014 Senate · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 778 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.945) = -1.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.056| = 1.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33784, race ID 23 (538 database).