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2014 Senate · TN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 974 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 55%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.86% · Republican 61.87%

R+30.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 55 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.865 − 61.867 = -30.002
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-30.002) = 8.001
  4. Absolute miss = |8.001| = 8.001

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33783, race ID 28 (538 database).