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2014 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 597 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 38%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.15% · Republican 42.91%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 38 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.151 − 42.908 = 10.243
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.243) = 4.756
  4. Absolute miss = |4.756| = 4.756

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33782, race ID 6 (538 database).