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2014 Governor · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 597 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 40%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 44.51%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.071 − 44.510 = 5.561
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.561) = 4.439
  4. Absolute miss = |4.439| = 4.439

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33782, race ID 1238 (538 database).