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2014 Governor · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-19 (16 days before the election) · 606 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-7.860) = 5.860
  4. Absolute miss = |5.860| = 5.860

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33781, race ID 1249 (538 database).