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2014 Senate · WV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 877 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 56%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.46% · Republican 62.12%

R+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 56 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.464 − 62.117 = -27.653
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-27.653) = 5.653
  4. Absolute miss = |5.653| = 5.653

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33779, race ID 30 (538 database).