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2014 Governor · NE

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 681 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 55%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.23% · Republican 57.16%

R+17.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 55 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.227 − 57.155 = -17.928
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-17.928) = -2.072
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.072| = 2.072

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33777, race ID 1233 (538 database).