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2014 Governor · OK

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 995 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 56%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.01% · Republican 55.80%

R+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 56 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.007 − 55.805 = -14.798
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-14.798) = -9.202
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.202| = 9.202

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33776, race ID 1242 (538 database).