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2014 Governor · OR

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 1,421 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 42%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.89% · Republican 44.13%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.889 − 44.127 = 5.762
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.762) = 0.238
  4. Absolute miss = |0.238| = 0.238

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33770, race ID 1240 (538 database).