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2014 Governor · IA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 2,322 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 50%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%

R+21.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 50 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-21.721) = 8.721
  4. Absolute miss = |8.721| = 8.721

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33768, race ID 1226 (538 database).