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2014 House · ME-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 291 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 41%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.83% · Republican 47.03%

R+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 41 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.827 − 47.031 = -5.204
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.204) = 4.204
  4. Absolute miss = |4.204| = 4.204

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33766, race ID 5514 (538 database).