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2014 Governor · ME

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 639 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 45%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.37% · Republican 48.19%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 45 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.374 − 48.185 = -4.811
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-4.811) = -5.189
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.189| = 5.189

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33766, race ID 1224 (538 database).