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2014 Senate · AR

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 621 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.43% · Republican 56.50%

R+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.430 − 56.497 = -17.067
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-17.067) = 15.067
  4. Absolute miss = |15.067| = 15.067

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33764, race ID 32 (538 database).