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2014 Governor · AR

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 621 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.49% · Republican 55.44%

R+13.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.494 − 55.436 = -13.942
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-13.942) = 10.942
  4. Absolute miss = |10.942| = 10.942

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33764, race ID 1232 (538 database).