2014 Senate · SD
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 730 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 29% · Republican 43%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 29.51% · Republican 50.37%
R+20.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 29 − 43 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 29.511 − 50.370 = -20.859
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.859) = 6.860
- Absolute miss = |6.860| = 6.860
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33763, race ID 22 (538 database).