2014 Governor · SD
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 730 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 28% · Republican 67%
R+39.0
The certified result
Democrat 25.43% · Republican 70.47%
R+45.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 28 − 67 = -39.00
- Actual margin = 25.432 − 70.467 = -45.035
- Signed miss = -39.00 − (-45.035) = 6.035
- Absolute miss = |6.035| = 6.035
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33763, race ID 1229 (538 database).